Deteriorated Situations: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Mozambique, Kashmir, Guatemala, Peru, Western Sahara

Continuing Conflicts That Create Refugees – December 2020  

Deteriorated Situations: Eritrea, Ethiopia, Somalia, Uganda, Mozambique, Kashmir, Guatemala, Peru, Western Sahara

Conflict Risk Alerts: Central African Republic, Ethiopia, Yemen, Western Sahara

Resolution Opportunities: None

The latest edition of Crisis Group’s monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in November in nine countries and conflict areas. In Kashmir, tensions escalated sharply amid deadly incidents along the Line of Control dividing Pakistani- and Indian-administered Kashmir, resulting in India’s highest monthly military casualty toll since April. In Mozambique, Islamist militants staged a large-scale offensive in the far north, seizing their second district capital since August and killing scores.  Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a Russian-brokered ceasefire to end six weeks of deadly hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Looking ahead to December, CrisisWatch warns of four conflict risks. In Yemen, Washington’s likely designation of the Huthis as a terrorist organisation could trigger retaliatory attacks and hamper humanitarian operations as the UN warns of looming famine.  In Western Sahara, the 1991 ceasefire between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front collapsed, sparking concerns that the long-frozen conflict could reignite. Tensions increased in the Central African Republic over former President Bozizé’s presidential candidacy, raising risks of violence around the vote scheduled for 27 December.  A violent conflict that erupted in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, killing thousands and prompting more than 43,000 refugees to flee into eastern Sudan, could continue. Although federal forces captured Tigray’s regional capital and announced an end to military operations, Tigray leaders vowed to continue fighting.

Source: International Crisis Group, https://is.gd/JVNDCr