Crisis Watch Continuing Conflicts That Create Refugees – October 2021

September 2021 Situations Deteriorated in: Burundi, Somalia, Sudan, Guinea, Yemen, Libya

London: Conflict Risk Alerts for October – Cameroon, Somalia, Sudan, Yemen A tense power struggle between Somalia’s President Mohamed Abdullahi “Farmajo” and Prime Minister Mohamed Hussein Roble could further strain the fragile electoral progress, and trigger violence in the capital Mogadishu. The war in Yemen could again take a turn for the worse as the Huthis will likely intensify their offensive in the country’s north, and especially in the governorates of Marib, Shabwa and Abyan. Tensions will run high in Cameroon as Anglophone separatists and government forces could clash violently around Ambazonia Independence Day on 1 October. In Sudan, an attempted coup heightened tensions between the civilian and military components of the transitional authorities, putting at stake the government’s unity.

Crisis Watch monthly conflict tracker highlights deteriorations in six countries in September. Political tensions rose in Libya after the parliament unilaterally issued a presidential election law and withdrew confidence from the government, dimming prospects of elections later this year. In Guinea, a military coup ousted President Alpha Condé, who had been in power for over a decade, ushering in a period of great uncertainty. A series of grenade attacks in Burundi, notably in the capital Gitega and in Bujumbura city, killed several people and injured over a hundred. We also noted an improvement in Lebanon, where the formation of a new government ended a thirteen-month period with caretaker authorities. Aside from the 70+ conflict situations we regularly assess, we tracked notable developments in: Brazil, Eswatini, Indonesia and Montenegro.

Resolution Opportunities for October – None

Source: Crisis Watch September 2021, https://is.gd/JVNDCr